{ "study": "YouTube auto-captions vs transcribe.so: words, speakers and timing (#2663)", "status": "scored: rules, extractor validation and corpus B selection were frozen at preregistered_at_commit before any transcribe.so run", "preregistered_on": "2026-10-26", "preregistered_at_commit": "10a150cf744c4ccde1e0d5fb56d14bceb89744b6", "rules": { "window_seconds": 600, "corpus_b_duration_seconds": [ 240, 1200 ], "corpus_b_min_reference_changes_in_window": 5, "corpus_b_max_videos_per_channel": 2, "corpus_b_target_videos": 30, "corpus_b_target_identity_videos": 10, "min_videos_per_language": 3, "corpus_b_selection": "languages with fewer than 3 qualifying videos are excluded before selection; then capped at 30 videos: identity videos first, then other non-English videos, then other English videos, each group in discovery order", "corpus_b_unusable_conventions": "videos whose captions mark different speakers with different marker types (mixed) or repeat lines as rolling captions are excluded at inspection", "corpus_b_drop_rules": "v1 rules 1, 2 and 4 and the language check, same thresholds, computed on the window", "window_rule": "reference cues with start < window; hypothesis words or segments with start < window", "conventions": [ ">>", "dash", "name_colon", "voice_tag" ], "convention_choice": "one per video, chosen by inspection and recorded in videos-b.json; never a union", "marker_rules": { ">>": "a cue line starting with >> (not >>>) is a speaker change; >>> marks a story change and is not one", "dash": "a cue line starting with a dash is a speaker change (only in dash-convention videos)", "name_colon": "a cue line starting with NAME: (1-3 tokens, a letter, no digits, the same NAME prefix at least twice in the video); a change when NAME differs from the current speaker; unlabelled lines continue the current speaker", "voice_tag": "a cue line with a WebVTT voice tag; same change and continuation rules as name_colon", "common": "a marker on a line holding only a bracketed non-speech tag ([Music], [Applause], [音楽], [박수], [Musik], [Applaudissements], [Música], [संगीत] and so on) is ignored; a change needs a preceding reference word in the window; the change time is the start of the cue holding the marker" }, "name_prefix": { "max_tokens": 3, "min_recurrences": 2 }, "alignment": "Levenshtein alignment of normalized tokens (v1 normalizer, applied per reference line and per hypothesis word or segment after speaker-prefix stripping); unit = character for ja, word otherwise", "change_detection": { "hypothesis_change": "start of a transcribe.so segment whose speaker differs from the previous non-null speaker", "matching": "Hungarian one-to-one matching: maximum matches within the collar, then minimum total |dt|", "collars_seconds": [ 0.5, 1.0, 2.0 ], "headline_collar_seconds": 1.0, "shift": "reference change times shifted by the per-video median signed offset (transcribe.so first aligned word start minus reference cue start) over ALL aligned cues; shifted and unshifted both reported", "shift_flag_abs_seconds": 2.0, "no_word_timing_languages_shift": 0.0 }, "attribution": { "subset": "identity videos (name_colon or voice_tag)", "mapping": "Hungarian one-to-one assignment of hypothesis labels to reference speakers maximizing aligned-token overlap (matches and substitutions)", "headline": "share of reference tokens with a known speaker attributed to the correct speaker; deleted tokens count as misattributed", "secondary": "same, over aligned (matched or substituted) reference tokens only", "cpwer": "concatenated minimum-permutation WER (Hungarian over per-speaker edit distances, unmatched speakers count in full); reference tokens with no known speaker and the hypothesis tokens aligned to them are left out", "null_speakers": "a transcript with no speaker labels is one hypothesis speaker for attribution and cpWER and has zero hypothesis changes (recall 0); null-speaker words inside a labelled transcript form their own label" }, "timing": { "offset": "per reference cue: start of the first cue token with an exact-match alignment in the system minus the reference cue start", "auto_synced_reference": { "onset_match_seconds": 0.05, "max_share_of_cues": 0.6, "rule": "a video whose YouTube offsets are within 50 ms on more than 60% of aligned cues is excluded from timing" }, "excluded_languages": [ "hi" ], "reported": [ "paired |YouTube offset| minus |transcribe.so offset| per cue (positive = transcribe.so closer)", "per-video de-biased spread: p90 of |offset minus that video's median signed offset|", "raw median and p90 |offset|, median signed offset (secondary)" ], "corpora": [ "a (v1 videos, first 10 minutes)", "b" ] }, "words": { "metric": "WER (CER for ja) on the window from the aligned tokens", "transcribe_so_published_as": "bands" }, "bands": [ [ "under 5%", 0.0, 0.05 ], [ "5-15%", 0.05, 0.15 ], [ "15% or higher", 0.15, null ] ], "publishing": { "exact": [ "speaker labels present", "speaker-change detection", "word-level speaker attribution accuracy", "timing", "YouTube WER" ], "bands_only": [ "transcribe.so WER", "transcribe.so cpWER" ], "youtube_speaker_metrics": "not available (the caption format carries no speaker labels)" }, "bootstrap": { "resamples": 2000, "seed": 20261026, "unit": "video", "stratified_by": "language", "interval": "percentile 95%" } }, "normalizer_version": "yt-caption-norm-1", "extractor_validation": { "method": "text-based and blinded: the labeller saw each sampled boundary with markers stripped and two cues of context on each side, without knowing whether a marker was present; no audio listening", "sample": { "marked": 100, "unmarked": 100 }, "labels": { "marked": { "yes": 68, "no": 14, "unsure": 18 }, "unmarked": { "yes": 11, "no": 83, "unsure": 6 } }, "labels_marked_by_convention": { "name_colon": { "yes": 24, "no": 2, "unsure": 6 }, "dash": { "yes": 39, "no": 12, "unsure": 10 }, ">>": { "yes": 5, "no": 0, "unsure": 2 } }, "population_in_window": { "marked_changes": 955, "unmarked_line_boundaries": 5516 }, "extractor_precision": 0.8293, "unmarked_boundaries_labelled_change": 0.117, "estimated_recall": 0.5509, "note": "References omit backchannels and short interjections, so hypothesis precision against them is a lower bound." }, "preregistered_selection": [ { "id": "7_u2pWZRfz0", "lang": "en", "convention": "name_colon", "identity": true }, { "id": "l9e2_ooS2kk", "lang": "en", "convention": "name_colon", "identity": true }, { "id": "KkxV3xNS7rA", "lang": "en", "convention": "name_colon", "identity": true }, { "id": "-qyAuLcMg2o", "lang": "en", "convention": "name_colon", "identity": true }, { "id": "BEdvMcdN8-A", "lang": "en", "convention": "name_colon", "identity": true }, { "id": "J483jYMJfEo", "lang": "en", "convention": "name_colon", "identity": true }, { "id": "lxdrn0i5jUw", "lang": "en", "convention": "name_colon", "identity": true }, { "id": "bEkWBFaxWLg", "lang": "fr", "convention": ">>", "identity": false }, { "id": "ndbbNdbyFyg", "lang": "fr", "convention": "dash", "identity": false }, { "id": "pFaAykC2gH0", "lang": "fr", "convention": "dash", "identity": false }, { "id": "PrZZ1aWyKnk", "lang": "de", "convention": "dash", "identity": false }, { "id": "4uFUJ0MlVDI", "lang": "pt", "convention": ">>", "identity": false }, { "id": "3jch1DnKaIY", "lang": "ko", "convention": "dash", "identity": false }, { "id": "g9-h_O3RxpQ", "lang": "ko", "convention": "dash", "identity": false }, { "id": "wYwUtX1c20A", "lang": "ko", "convention": "dash", "identity": false }, { "id": "eh1x0AiMODM", "lang": "ko", "convention": "dash", "identity": false }, { "id": "k-rL4JVjdB0", "lang": "ko", "convention": "dash", "identity": false }, { "id": "TRrSnQd3FnY", "lang": "ko", "convention": "dash", "identity": false }, { "id": "9T1vXAqdrHw", "lang": "ko", "convention": "dash", "identity": false }, { "id": "boFHmTabDj8", "lang": "ko", "convention": "dash", "identity": false }, { "id": "fxySIiLNQrs", "lang": "en", "convention": "name_colon", "identity": true }, { "id": "4A5ncMJ_Dek", "lang": "en", "convention": "name_colon", "identity": true }, { "id": "YBrv5MLO7tw", "lang": "fr", "convention": "dash", "identity": false }, { "id": "0HrabWafnjk", "lang": "fr", "convention": "dash", "identity": false }, { "id": "1X5CICisiC0", "lang": "fr", "convention": "dash", "identity": false }, { "id": "qS3JoO0-_-A", "lang": "fr", "convention": "dash", "identity": false }, { "id": "iiJ9Dg0ugUE", "lang": "de", "convention": "name_colon", "identity": true }, { "id": "w5JuqryPoBU", "lang": "de", "convention": "dash", "identity": false }, { "id": "dWpEa9dqueM", "lang": "pt", "convention": "dash", "identity": false }, { "id": "tfm3DdHWSYo", "lang": "pt", "convention": "dash", "identity": false } ], "amendments": [ { "n": 1, "date": "2026-10-26", "commit": "3e91ff09d6a32b4421687e5e790a102785fb7176", "type": "output list only", "reason": "Strategic review adopted by the owner: keep the v1 post verbatim as the neutral YouTube-only asset and publish v2 as a new companion post (/blog/youtube-captions-speakers-timing-2026) linked both ways, instead of retitling and expanding the v1 post. No change to metrics, thresholds, collars, extractor rules or the corpus B selection." } ], "run_date": "2026-10-26", "v1_thresholds_reused": { "rule1_speech_rate_floor_fraction": 0.4, "rule1_typical_units_per_minute": { "en": 150, "es": 160, "fr": 150, "de": 130, "pt": 150, "ja": 300, "ko": 100, "hi": 120 }, "rule2_creator_auto_length_ratio": [ 0.7, 1.3 ], "rule4_duplicate_max": 0.02, "qualification_b_script_share_min": 0.5 }, "ytdlp_version": "2026.10.21", "captions_fetched_corpus_b": [ "2026-10-26" ], "systems": { "youtube": "YouTube automatic captions (ASR track, json3 word offsets)", "transcribe_so": "transcribe.so public API on a Pro-plan test account, the default pipeline for that plan; served pipeline label recorded per video", "transcribe_so_pipeline_labels": [ "standard" ] }, "corpus_b": { "discovery": { "probed_per_language": { "en": 236, "es": 140, "fr": 140, "de": 140, "pt": 140, "ja": 60, "ko": 60, "hi": 59 }, "rejected_at_probe": { "en": { "no_auto_json3": 59, "language_mismatch": 100, "live": 3, "channel_cap": 47, "no_creator_track": 5 }, "es": { "language_mismatch": 127, "no_creator_track": 8, "no_auto_json3": 11, "no_auto_track": 4, "live": 3, "probe_error": 2, "channel_cap": 3 }, "fr": { "language_mismatch": 113, "no_auto_json3": 16, "no_creator_track": 5, "channel_cap": 1 }, "de": { "language_mismatch": 101, "duration": 2, "no_creator_track": 7, "no_auto_json3": 6, "channel_cap": 9 }, "pt": { "language_mismatch": 81, "live": 2, "probe_error": 2, "channel_cap": 14, "no_auto_track": 2, "no_creator_track": 2 }, "ja": { "no_creator_track": 26, "language_mismatch": 14, "channel_cap": 4 }, "ko": { "language_mismatch": 12, "no_creator_track": 18, "no_auto_track": 1, "no_auto_json3": 1, "channel_cap": 4 }, "hi": { "language_mismatch": 23, "no_auto_json3": 1, "channel_cap": 1, "no_creator_track": 3 } }, "track_qualified_candidates": 368 }, "screen_outcomes": { "en": { "no_speaker_markers": 66, "selected": 9, "surplus": 37, "drop_rule2": 2, "unusable_convention_mixed": 1, "too_few_reference_changes": 3, "unusable_convention_rolling": 3 }, "es": { "no_speaker_markers": 31, "too_few_reference_changes": 1, "language_below_minimum": 2, "unusable_convention_rolling": 2, "drop_rule2": 3, "unusable_convention_mixed": 1 }, "fr": { "no_speaker_markers": 40, "selected": 7, "drop_rule1": 1, "too_few_reference_changes": 1 }, "de": { "no_speaker_markers": 41, "selected": 3 }, "pt": { "no_speaker_markers": 37, "selected": 3, "surplus": 3 }, "ja": { "no_speaker_markers": 16 }, "ko": { "selected": 8, "no_speaker_markers": 16 }, "hi": { "no_speaker_markers": 31 } }, "selected": 30, "selected_identity": 10, "selected_by_language": { "en": 9, "fr": 7, "de": 3, "pt": 3, "ko": 8 }, "languages_included": [ "en", "fr", "de", "pt", "ko" ], "languages_excluded_too_few_videos": {}, "conventions": { ">>": 2, "dash": 18, "name_colon": 10, "voice_tag": 0 }, "transcribe_so_completed": 30 }, "corpus_a": { "videos": 38, "transcribe_so_completed": 38 }, "transcribe_so_rows": { "created": 68, "completed": 68, "kept_not_deleted": true }, "results": { "words_corpus_b": { "en": { "metric": "wer", "videos": 9, "reference_units": 10347, "youtube": 0.3062, "youtube_ci95": [ 0.2067, 0.4241 ], "transcribe_so_band": "15% or higher" }, "fr": { "metric": "wer", "videos": 7, "reference_units": 8709, "youtube": 0.2324, "youtube_ci95": [ 0.1299, 0.3433 ], "transcribe_so_band": "15% or higher" }, "de": { "metric": "wer", "videos": 3, "reference_units": 3277, "youtube": 0.3912, "youtube_ci95": [ 0.3205, 0.4639 ], "transcribe_so_band": "15% or higher" }, "pt": { "metric": "wer", "videos": 3, "reference_units": 4539, "youtube": 0.1758, "youtube_ci95": [ 0.0559, 0.283 ], "transcribe_so_band": "5-15%" }, "ko": { "metric": "wer", "videos": 8, "reference_units": 5900, "youtube": 0.4461, "youtube_ci95": [ 0.3497, 0.5828 ], "transcribe_so_band": "15% or higher" }, "pooled_word_languages": { "metric": "wer", "languages": [ "en", "fr", "de", "pt", "ko" ], "videos": 30, "reference_units": 32772, "youtube": 0.3022, "youtube_ci95": [ 0.2484, 0.3557 ], "transcribe_so_band": "15% or higher" } }, "speaker_labels_present": { "youtube": "not available (the caption format carries no speaker labels)", "transcribe_so_share_of_words": 1.0, "videos": 30 }, "change_detection": { "en": { "videos": 9, "reference_changes": 165, "hypothesis_changes": 170, "videos_with_null_speaker_transcript": 0, "shifted_collar_0.5": { "precision": 0.3471, "recall": 0.3576, "f1": 0.3522 }, "shifted_collar_1.0": { "precision": 0.5118, "recall": 0.5273, "f1": 0.5194, "f1_ci95": [ 0.3325, 0.6962 ], "precision_ci95": [ 0.3235, 0.7246 ], "recall_ci95": [ 0.3571, 0.7024 ] }, "shifted_collar_2.0": { "precision": 0.7235, "recall": 0.7455, "f1": 0.7343 }, "unshifted_collar_0.5": { "precision": 0.2882, "recall": 0.297, "f1": 0.2925 }, "unshifted_collar_1.0": { "precision": 0.3412, "recall": 0.3515, "f1": 0.3463 }, "unshifted_collar_2.0": { "precision": 0.4118, "recall": 0.4242, "f1": 0.4179 } }, "fr": { "videos": 7, "reference_changes": 275, "hypothesis_changes": 300, "videos_with_null_speaker_transcript": 0, "shifted_collar_0.5": { "precision": 0.39, "recall": 0.4255, "f1": 0.407 }, "shifted_collar_1.0": { "precision": 0.4733, "recall": 0.5164, "f1": 0.4939, "f1_ci95": [ 0.3083, 0.7048 ], "precision_ci95": [ 0.269, 0.7653 ], "recall_ci95": [ 0.3086, 0.6821 ] }, "shifted_collar_2.0": { "precision": 0.5767, "recall": 0.6291, "f1": 0.6017 }, "unshifted_collar_0.5": { "precision": 0.35, "recall": 0.3818, "f1": 0.3652 }, "unshifted_collar_1.0": { "precision": 0.4367, "recall": 0.4764, "f1": 0.4557 }, "unshifted_collar_2.0": { "precision": 0.57, "recall": 0.6218, "f1": 0.5948 } }, "de": { "videos": 3, "reference_changes": 62, "hypothesis_changes": 133, "videos_with_null_speaker_transcript": 0, "shifted_collar_0.5": { "precision": 0.3008, "recall": 0.6452, "f1": 0.4103 }, "shifted_collar_1.0": { "precision": 0.3684, "recall": 0.7903, "f1": 0.5026, "f1_ci95": [ 0.129, 0.7273 ], "precision_ci95": [ 0.0741, 0.6154 ], "recall_ci95": [ 0.5, 0.8889 ] }, "shifted_collar_2.0": { "precision": 0.406, "recall": 0.871, "f1": 0.5538 }, "unshifted_collar_0.5": { "precision": 0.2556, "recall": 0.5484, "f1": 0.3487 }, "unshifted_collar_1.0": { "precision": 0.3383, "recall": 0.7258, "f1": 0.4615 }, "unshifted_collar_2.0": { "precision": 0.406, "recall": 0.871, "f1": 0.5538 } }, "pt": { "videos": 3, "reference_changes": 121, "hypothesis_changes": 45, "videos_with_null_speaker_transcript": 0, "shifted_collar_0.5": { "precision": 0.1333, "recall": 0.0496, "f1": 0.0723 }, "shifted_collar_1.0": { "precision": 0.1778, "recall": 0.0661, "f1": 0.0964, "f1_ci95": [ 0.0, 0.5263 ], "precision_ci95": [ 0.0833, 0.5556 ], "recall_ci95": [ 0.0, 0.6 ] }, "shifted_collar_2.0": { "precision": 0.2222, "recall": 0.0826, "f1": 0.1205 }, "unshifted_collar_0.5": { "precision": 0.0222, "recall": 0.0083, "f1": 0.012 }, "unshifted_collar_1.0": { "precision": 0.0889, "recall": 0.0331, "f1": 0.0482 }, "unshifted_collar_2.0": { "precision": 0.1111, "recall": 0.0413, "f1": 0.0602 } }, "ko": { "videos": 8, "reference_changes": 332, "hypothesis_changes": 379, "videos_with_null_speaker_transcript": 0, "shifted_collar_0.5": { "precision": 0.2507, "recall": 0.2861, "f1": 0.2672 }, "shifted_collar_1.0": { "precision": 0.3799, "recall": 0.4337, "f1": 0.4051, "f1_ci95": [ 0.1769, 0.5515 ], "precision_ci95": [ 0.1338, 0.625 ], "recall_ci95": [ 0.2534, 0.5214 ] }, "shifted_collar_2.0": { "precision": 0.5119, "recall": 0.5843, "f1": 0.5457 }, "unshifted_collar_0.5": { "precision": 0.2322, "recall": 0.2651, "f1": 0.2475 }, "unshifted_collar_1.0": { "precision": 0.3905, "recall": 0.4458, "f1": 0.4163 }, "unshifted_collar_2.0": { "precision": 0.5092, "recall": 0.5813, "f1": 0.5429 } }, "pooled": { "videos": 30, "reference_changes": 955, "hypothesis_changes": 1027, "videos_with_null_speaker_transcript": 0, "shifted_collar_0.5": { "precision": 0.3087, "recall": 0.3319, "f1": 0.3199 }, "shifted_collar_1.0": { "precision": 0.4187, "recall": 0.4503, "f1": 0.4339, "f1_ci95": [ 0.3266, 0.5384 ], "precision_ci95": [ 0.2939, 0.5523 ], "recall_ci95": [ 0.3392, 0.5623 ] }, "shifted_collar_2.0": { "precision": 0.5394, "recall": 0.5801, "f1": 0.559 }, "unshifted_collar_0.5": { "precision": 0.2697, "recall": 0.2901, "f1": 0.2795 }, "unshifted_collar_1.0": { "precision": 0.3759, "recall": 0.4042, "f1": 0.3895 }, "unshifted_collar_2.0": { "precision": 0.48, "recall": 0.5162, "f1": 0.4975 } }, "youtube": "not available (the caption format carries no speaker labels)" }, "attribution": { "en": { "videos": 9, "known_reference_units": 10213, "accuracy_all_reference_words": 0.9303, "accuracy_all_reference_words_ci95": [ 0.8959, 0.961 ], "accuracy_aligned_words_only": 0.9537, "accuracy_aligned_words_only_ci95": [ 0.922, 0.9831 ], "cpwer_transcribe_so_band": "15% or higher", "videos_with_null_speaker_transcript": 0 }, "de": { "videos": 1, "known_reference_units": 787, "accuracy_all_reference_words": 0.77, "accuracy_all_reference_words_ci95": [ 0.77, 0.77 ], "accuracy_aligned_words_only": 0.7891, "accuracy_aligned_words_only_ci95": [ 0.7891, 0.7891 ], "cpwer_transcribe_so_band": "15% or higher", "videos_with_null_speaker_transcript": 0 }, "pooled_word_languages": { "videos": 10, "known_reference_units": 11000, "accuracy_all_reference_words": 0.9188, "accuracy_all_reference_words_ci95": [ 0.8871, 0.9468 ], "accuracy_aligned_words_only": 0.9419, "accuracy_aligned_words_only_ci95": [ 0.9127, 0.9697 ], "cpwer_transcribe_so_band": "15% or higher", "videos_with_null_speaker_transcript": 0 }, "youtube": "not available (the caption format carries no speaker labels)" }, "timing": { "corpus_a": { "videos_considered": 38, "excluded_auto_synced_reference": 6, "excluded_no_word_timing_or_language": 4, "videos": 29, "paired_cues": 3730, "paired_median_abs_diff_s": 0.001, "paired_mean_abs_diff_s": -0.066, "paired_share_ours_closer": 0.5016, 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